Brazil estimates 2022/23 grains and oilseeds harvest at 308 million tonnes — MercoPress
Brazil estimates grain and oilseed harvest of 308m tonnes for 2022/23
The Brazilian government CONAB (National Supply Company) forecast the 2022/23 grain and oilseed harvest to reach 308 million tons, given the good performance and strong international demand for corn, soybeans, rice, beans and cotton.
“Despite the increase in production costs, the crops still have strong liquidity and represent good profits for Brazilian farmers,” said Guilherme Ribeiro, president of CONAB. He added, as shown in the preliminary report on agricultural outlook 2022/23 by Conab, that these factors have contributed to the allocation of more soil to crops of soybeans, corn and cotton.
Moreover, the five crops, which correspond to more than 90% of Brazilian cereal production, are estimated at 294.3 million tonnes.
For soybeans, the Conab points to a record production scenario. The projection is 150.36 million tons for the next season. Prices are expected to remain attractive as global oilseed supply and demand remain tight. This reflects an increasing trend of 3.54% of area for cultivation, reaching 42.4 million hectares.
In the case of cotton, Conab’s analysis indicates a scenario of increased acreage, productivity and a consequent increase in production. The first forecast for the 2022/23 harvest indicates a harvest of 2.92 million tons of plume. The factors behind this trend are high price level, good profit margin and early marketing, among others.
However, uncertainties in the global economic scenario may limit this growth. Nevertheless, given the production, the exported volume should recover and reach a level close to two million tonnes, in addition to building up a carryover stock of around 1.75 million tonnes at the end of 2023.
For rice, the cultivated area is expected to show a further reduction from the 2022/23 harvest. With the high cost of production, farmers tend to opt for crops with better profit and cash flow estimates, such as corn and soybeans. Nevertheless, the production of the 2022/23 campaign is expected to reach 11.2 million tons, given the likelihood of better yields compared to 2021/22, which suffered from water scarcity for its good development. A similar scenario is expected for beans.
With regard to maize, a total production of 125.5 million tonnes is expected. The area devoted to corn crops should decrease by 0.6% during the first annual harvest since it coincides with the soybean growing season. However, with a possible recovery in yields, after suffering from a lack of water in the producing regions in 2021/22, the total harvest could reach 28.98 million tonnes.
In the second cereal harvest, an increase in area and productivity is estimated, leading to a yield of 94.53 million tonnes, an increase of 8.2% compared to the 2021/22 harvest.
When it comes to the animal protein market, meat producers, especially poultry and pork producers, face the challenge of managing production costs, given rising corn prices. In this high cost scenario, the trend is for a lower profit margin for the sector.
In the case of pig farming, another factor to consider is the resumption of Chinese herds, affected by African swine fever from 2018. The plague had an impact on domestic prices for live pigs. Naturally, lower infection rates lead to reduced exports to China.
“However, with new markets opening up, such as in other Southeast Asian countries and Canada, the effects of this decline tend to be minimized,” says Allan Silveira, Head of Market Research and of supply management at Conab. The trend in 2023 is for an increase in slaughter of around 6.7%, which is not expected to fully translate into increased protein production due to lower average animal weights expected due to high feed costs. food.
Poultry slaughter is expected to increase by 3.2% in 2023 from this year, to 6.29 billion chickens, while exports are expected to fall by 1.7%, to 4.5 million tons. This combination of factors translates into a likely increase in domestic supply of 4.2%, increasing per capita availability by around 51 kg/capita/year.
Despite a favorable external market situation, beef farmers are facing rising costs, mainly due to recent increases in the price of calves. In response to this price increase, breeders have developed a female retention strategy, which could explain the expected increase in herd numbers for 2022 and 2023 and, consequently, the increase in slaughter rates in the coming months, up 2.7% compared to 2022 (30.1 m head of cattle).
This increase in slaughterings also indicates a 2.9% increase in beef production, due to the possibility that in 2023 the process of slaughtering cows, typical of the current stage of the breeding cycle, begins, resulting in an increase of approximately 5% in sales. to the external market and a slight increase in availability per capita in 2023, approaching 26 kg/capita/year.