Inflation is expected to exceed 7%
The surge in prices is strongly reminiscent of the 1980s, analysts point out, after the announcement on Monday of the 48.8% increase in the industrial producer price index in April on an annual basis.
Inflation projections for 2022 as a whole are constantly revised upwards, and analysts now estimate it between 7% and 9%. Just a month ago, in its spring estimates, the government predicted a rate of 6.3% for the European Union’s harmonized index – which is generally lower than the national index. On Tuesday, the European Commission will release its own estimates of the May readings, which are sure to remain high, as the industrial index also shows.
The National Bank’s chief economist, Nikos Magginas, noted the spread of inflationary pressures to all of production, packaging, transport, raw materials, etc. As the government tries to bring the situation under control with its interventions on electricity tariffs, the pressure remains, he commented. .
“For the first time, inflationary projections exceed the long-term target of 2%,” Magginas said, adding that he could not see this year’s average rate falling below 7%, despite government measures. which should contain 1 to 1.5%. points. He considers particularly worrying the forecast of a surge in oil prices to 120 dollars a barrel.
Piraeus Bank chief economist Ilias Lekkos sees inflation approaching 9% this year, before dropping to 2% in 2023 – but only if there is a solution on the war and crisis fronts. ‘feed.
On the bright side, inflationary pressures are not causing concern over gross domestic product, with indices remaining at healthy levels, the momentum of 2021 continuing into the first months of 2022 and tourism reaching the record numbers seen in 2019.
Data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) showed on Monday that the surge in industrial producer prices is generated by the 50.9% rise in external market rates and the 48.1% increase in market prices. indoor market.