POLL-S. Korea’s September exports increase for 11th consecutive month
Seven exports + 16.3% y / y, imports + 27.0% y / y – survey
Industrial production in August + 0.5% s / adj m / m vs + 0.4% in July – survey
September CPI + 2.3% y / y vs + 2.6% in August – survey
Trade data expected on October 1 at 9:00 a.m. (0000 GMT)
SEOUL, September 29 (Reuters) – South Korean exports likely increased in September for an 11th consecutive month, according to a Reuters poll on Wednesday, supported by higher sales of key items despite fewer working days and a base effect that fades after the trade crisis from last year.
Foreign sales in September were up 16.3% from a year ago, according to a median forecast from a poll of 22 economists, although down from an expansion of 34, 8% recorded in August.
Most economists mainly attributed the slowdown in growth to two fewer business days due to Korea’s Thanksgiving holiday, Chuseok, but expected daily exports to remain strong.
“We expect overall export growth to stabilize largely during the Chuseok holiday in September, but the underlying momentum to remain resilient following the 20-day export data trend,” said Kathleen Oh from BofA Securities.
“We expect external demand to remain strong in all regions and products, including semiconductors and non-technology products,” she added.
Data from last week showed exports for the first 20 days of the month jumped 22.9% year-on-year, with semiconductors, petroleum products and wireless devices climbing 7.7% respectively. , 95% and 19.6%.
Exports to the country’s main trading partners during the same period remained strong, with those to China, the United States and the European Union increasing by 19.7%, 24.9% and 34.2 respectively. %.
Wednesday’s poll also predicted that South Korea’s total imports would have increased 27.0% year-on-year. This compares to 44.0% in August, the fastest growth since May 2010.
“As the growth rate of imports is higher (than the growth of exports), the Korean economy should show the possibility of improving domestic demand and exports,” said An Ki-tae, economist at NH. Securities.
The full month’s trade data will be released on Friday at 9:00 a.m. local time (0000 GMT).
In the same poll, 10 economists separately predicted that consumer prices would rise 2.3% this month from a year earlier, down from a 2.6% increase recorded in August, but remaining above the central bank’s 2% target for a sixth consecutive month.
Some 19 economists also estimated that industrial production in August would have increased 0.5% on average over a month.
(Reporting by Joori Roh; additional reporting by Jihoon Lee and the Bangalore poll team; editing by Richard Pullin)
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